Updated October 19, 2026: The administration’s Russia-sanctions waiver is now subject to a review of its economic implications. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the review could take up to 60 days, Reuters reported October 18. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the decision. Although energy costs have been cited in the debate, the waiver alone does not establish that U.S. fuel prices will fall.
Latest developments: For the event timeline and the immediate political response, see our Russia sanctions waiver news update. This article focuses on the possible economic implications, which remain uncertain while the 60-day review is underway.
Trump signed an executive order Friday evening invoking the national interest to waive the penalties, which were set out in the Graham Act, according to Fox Business. Bloomberg reports that the measures had complicated the president’s push to lower diesel prices ahead of the elections.
What the Graham Act Would Have Done
The law, which Trump signed last month, is named for the late Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, who championed it as a way to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Business Standard reports that it gave the president 30 days to impose 100% tariffs on all goods from the top five buyers of Russian crude. It would also have imposed sanctions on numerous Russian entities and 500% tariffs on US imports of Russian energy products.
The law includes a clause that lets the president waive sanctions provisions. In his order, Trump said he was waiving the application of the sanctions, restrictions and duties in the act, and that he had certified to Congress that the waiver is in the national interests of the United States, according to The Hill. Fox Business notes the order does not affect Russia-related sanctions imposed under earlier executive orders.
The Diesel Deal Behind the Move
The waiver follows a deal Trump announced last week after what he called a highly successful discussion with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Under it, Russia would immediately supply 300,000 tons of diesel, then another 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons after that, The Hill reports. The Kremlin had banned diesel exports in July after a series of Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy assets, NBC News reports. Trump also announced an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine, though CNBC reports that neither country appears to have formally accepted it.
What It Means for Oil Prices
Fuel costs are the political problem driving the policy. US diesel prices hit a record $6.52 a gallon in September, Al Jazeera reports, as the Iran war and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have disrupted supply. Brent crude has stayed above $100 a barrel, and it closed at $106.65 on Monday, according to CNBC.
Analysts are skeptical that the waiver will bring quick relief. CNBC reports that some questioned whether the diesel deal would meaningfully lower US fuel prices, and NBC News notes that an earlier temporary easing of Russian oil sanctions this year largely failed to slow price increases. The waiver also averts potential trade disputes with major buyers of Russian energy such as China, according to Investing.com, which could keep more Russian supply flowing.
Watch: Will the Russia Diesel Deal Save the Midterms?
A video analysis looks at the diesel deal and what it means for Republicans before the election:
What It Means for Ukraine
Kyiv has reacted angrily. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the diesel deal a “birthday gift” to Putin, The Hill reports, and described Trump’s easing of sanctions as an obvious weakness. Newsweek reports that Zelenskyy has warned the deal could be just the beginning of more US-Russia economic deals, while Trump has criticized Kyiv’s renewed strikes on Russian oil facilities as a “disgrace” that push up global oil prices. A White House spokeswoman defended the diesel agreement as a great deal to bring prices down. Ukraine also says it was hit by a Starlink slowdown this week that it fears is tied to Washington.
Bipartisan Pushback in Congress
The waiver risks fresh backlash on Capitol Hill. A bipartisan group of senators sent Trump a letter this week demanding that he abandon the Russian diesel agreement and enforce the Graham Act, according to Business Standard. Rep. Bill Keating, a Democrat, called the diesel deal a disturbing capitulation to the Kremlin. One analyst quoted by Al Jazeera suggested the timing could be politically motivated, giving Trump a chance to claim a win on energy prices before voters go to the polls.
The Midterm Stakes
Trump and Republicans face voters who are frustrated by the cost of living. Inflation rose to 3.7% in September, driven by gasoline, and polls show Democrats leading the generic ballot. Lower fuel prices are one of the few levers the White House can pull quickly, which is why the sanctions policy is now closely tied to the election calendar.
What to Watch Next
- Whether Russian diesel actually reaches the market, and how quickly.
- Brent crude and US diesel prices over the coming days.
- Reaction from Congress, including Republicans who backed the Graham Act.
- Whether Russia and Ukraine formally accept the proposed energy ceasefire.
This is a developing story and will be updated as more information becomes available. Sources: Fox Business, Bloomberg, The Hill, NBC News, CNBC, Al Jazeera, Business Standard, Newsweek, CNN, Reuters.