Election update: With the November 3 midterm elections less than three weeks away, polls show President Donald Trump’s policies, and voters’ frustration over rising prices, putting Republican control of Congress at serious risk.
All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are on the ballot. Reuters reported October 19 that Democrats need a net gain of four seats in both chambers to take control; Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in the House and Senate. Republicans currently lead the House narrowly, 218 seats to 214, according to Northeastern University.
Trump’s Approval Is Near Historic Lows
Midterms are almost always a referendum on the sitting president, and the numbers are not favorable. An average of polls puts Trump’s approval at 37%, which NPR notes is tied for the lowest pre-midterm rating in the last half century. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll has it lower still, around 32%, while Nate Silver’s tracker shows about 38%.
History adds to the pressure. The Brookings Institution found that the president’s party has lost ground in House midterm elections in 20 of the past 22 contests going back to 1938, and that presidential approval has a strong effect on the result.
Prices and the Iran War Are Driving Voters
The policies voters are reacting to most are economic. Inflation climbed to 3.7% in September, with gasoline up about 34% from a year ago, and an AP/NORC poll found that 65% of Americans say higher-than-usual prices are more because of Trump’s policies than factors outside his control. Republicans have lost their long-held edge on the economy, according to NPR.
Analysts also point to the Iran war and its effect on fuel costs. Writing in The Conversation, a political analyst noted that in Nate Silver’s model, Trump’s net approval and the generic ballot were better for Republicans in early September, right after a dip in gas prices. That suggests continued disruption from the war could hurt the party further.
Democrats Lead the Generic Ballot
In an average of 2026 polls, Democrats hold roughly a nine-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot. Silver’s model has the gap at about 9.6 points.
- House: Democrats are favored. Northeastern University analyst Holtz expects the party to flip about 18 to 20 seats, for a majority of around 232.
- Senate: Democrats lead narrowly in several states Trump won by double digits in 2024, including Ohio, Texas, Alaska, Iowa and Kansas, which is why many forecasters now see them as favorites for the chamber. Many Senate races are too close to model with confidence.
Watch: Could Republicans Lose Control of Congress?
A video explainer looks at the polls and what the midterms could mean for Trump:
What Could Save Republicans
Republicans still have paths to hold on. Ten states redrew their congressional maps mid-decade, and Cook Political Report estimates the changes could give Republicans a net gain of about four House seats. Reuters has outlined six factors that could limit Democratic gains despite Trump’s low ratings, and one analyst noted that Republicans have spent hundreds of millions of dollars branding Democratic nominees as far left. Trump has kept up the pressure on the trail, rallying Republicans and warning voters that control of Congress is at stake, Fox News reports.
What a Democratic Win Would Mean
A change in control would not automatically undo Trump’s policies. As Forbes notes, Trump has already bypassed Congress on some of his biggest priorities, including immigration raids and the Iran war. But a split or Democratic-controlled Congress could significantly hamstring his agenda. House Democrats are already preparing a sweeping 100-day agenda in case they win the chamber, and if Republicans hold both chambers, Trump would have greater freedom to pursue his policies through Congress.
What to Watch Next
- Gas prices and the next inflation reading, which shape voters’ views of the economy.
- Trump’s approval rating and any movement in the generic ballot.
- Senate polling in Ohio, Texas, Alaska, Iowa and Kansas.
- Turnout on November 3.
This is a developing story and will be updated as more information becomes available. Sources: NBC News, NPR, Northeastern University, The Conversation, Brookings, Forbes, Fox News, Reuters.
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