Gas prices are easing slightly but remain above $4 a gallon, a level that is likely to stay in voters’ minds when they cast ballots in the Nov. 3 midterm elections. The national average has fallen for several weeks from a record-setting September, yet analysts quoted by ABC News do not expect it to drop below $4 before Election Day.
Related coverage: See our reporting on oil prices and U.S. fuel costs and the oil price and Fed outlook.
Prices Remain High but Are Slipping
AAA reported a national average of $4.22 a gallon for regular gasoline on Oct. 29, down about 5 cents from the week before. Its October weekly updates show a steady decline from $4.41 on Oct. 1, then $4.36 on Oct. 8, $4.33 on Oct. 15 and $4.27 on Oct. 22.
AAA said September set a record. Its September average was $4.33, which it said was 50 cents above the previous September record. On Oct. 8, it said pump prices remained at record highs for autumn. AAA’s page showed a figure of $4.2046 for Oct. 30 in its header, but we could not confirm it, so we are using the Oct. 29 weekly figure.
What Is Keeping Prices Up
AAA said crude oil above $100 a barrel is limiting further declines at the pump, and it credited the switch to cheaper winter-blend gasoline for an earlier weekly drop.
ABC News reported that the national average was up nearly $1.30, or 43%, since the Iran war began in February, based on AAA data from Oct. 22. It cited fighting in the Middle East that has damaged oil infrastructure and raised transport costs, along with reduced Russian fuel exports linked to the Russia-Ukraine war. It also noted that Brent crude rose above $112 a barrel, its highest since May. ABC said refined fuel supply has not fully recovered even as crude exports from the region have improved, and that lower travel demand in the fall may bring some seasonal relief.
What Analysts Expect
ABC News quoted several experts on whether prices could fall below $4 by Nov. 3:
- GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan wrote on X: “Gasoline will not fall below $4/gal prior to the midterms.”
- Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Dow Jones Energy, answered: “Short answer: No.”
- Ramanan Krishnamoorti, a University of Houston petroleum engineering professor, said: “It’s usually a pretty slow downward trajectory for gas prices.”
The analysts said relief could be slow even if the war ended, because retailers sell existing higher-cost inventory first and some oil infrastructure needs lengthy repairs.
Voters and the Cost of Living
ABC said voters list affordability as a top concern before the midterms, but it did not cite a poll specifically about gas prices. Pew Research Center found in a survey conducted Sept. 28 to Oct. 4 that 84% of registered voters call the economy very important to their vote. Pew did not break out gas prices separately in the page we reviewed, so this article does not claim that fuel costs alone will decide any race.
Readers can check current prices on AAA’s website, since the figures change daily.
This article is for news and information only.
Sources: AAA; ABC News; Pew Research Center.